The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data has released its November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, indicating that households’ inflation expectations remained steady across one-year, three-year, and five-year timeframes. The survey found that while expectations about inflation did not change, consumers anticipate higher costs for medical care and other key expenses.
According to the data collected from November 1 through November 30, median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.2% for the coming year and held at 3.0% for both the three- and five-year horizons. Disagreement among respondents regarding future inflation decreased at all measured intervals. Inflation uncertainty was stable for the short- and medium-term but declined over a five-year period.
Expectations for home price growth also stayed consistent at 3.0% for the sixth straight month. However, anticipated increases in commodity prices rose: food prices are expected to rise by 5.9%, gas by 4.1%, college education by 8.4%, rent by 8.3%, and medical care costs by 10.1%. The projection for medical care cost growth is the highest recorded since January 2014.
Labor market indicators showed some positive signs. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained at 2.6%. The mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year fell slightly to 42.1%. Respondents’ perceived risk of losing their job in the next year dropped to its lowest point since December 2024, at 13.8%. The likelihood of voluntarily leaving a job also decreased to its lowest level since February 2025, now at 17.7%. If someone lost their job, the chance they believe they could find new employment within three months rose modestly to 47.3%.
In terms of household finances, expected income growth increased slightly to 2.9%, matching its average over the past year. Anticipated household spending grew to an expected increase of 5%. More respondents reported that access to credit had worsened compared to a year ago; however, views on future credit availability did not change significantly.
Concerns about debt payment have grown marginally: the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased to 13.7%. Expected changes in taxes over the next year rose across all age, education, and income groups, reaching their highest level since June 2024 at an anticipated increase of 4.1%. Expectations about government debt growth also climbed sharply to their highest point since July 2024.
Respondents expressed more negative views about their current financial situation compared with last year and were less optimistic about their prospects for improvement over the coming year.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) is an internet-based study involving approximately 1,200 household heads who participate in rotating panels lasting up to twelve months each cycle, allowing researchers to track changes in individual attitudes over time rather than relying on different respondents each month.
For further information about survey methodology or data access tools such as interactive charts and questionnaires, interested parties can refer directly to resources provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“Perceptionsabout households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated notably with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago, and a smaller share reporting they were better off,” according to findings from the report.
“Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now,” states another section of the release.
