The process of estimating the number of new housing units resulting from the Midtown South rezoning has led to confusion. The City Council’s recent changes to the plan have highlighted how difficult it is to predict housing outcomes tied to major zoning decisions.
The Department of City Planning, as part of its environmental review, identifies which sites are likely to be redeveloped if a rezoning takes place. However, this does not guarantee that property owners will actually pursue redevelopment. Similarly, some owners interested in redevelopment may not have their properties included in these projections.
One example is Expansion Group’s 554-568 Eighth Avenue, a vacant office building considered suitable for office-to-residential conversion under the new zoning rules. This site was excluded from a newly mapped residential district in the northwest quadrant by the City Council.
According to the City Council, the rezoning could allow for 9,535 housing units. This figure includes both units enabled by the zoning change and those that would have been built regardless. The estimate for units added solely due to rezoning is 9,483. The distinction was not made clear when changes were announced, leading some reports to suggest that modifications reduced potential housing by 141 units.
City Planning estimated that without council changes, rezoning alone would add up to 9,676 housing units—a difference of 141 units compared with post-modification numbers. Including what would have been built without rezoning brings the total projection to 9,730 units. Thus, City Council adjustments reduced potential housing by between 193 and 195 units.
In carving out parts of the northwest quadrant from new residential zoning, none of City Planning’s 61 “projected development sites” were included. However, one “potential” site at 240 West 37th Street—initially estimated as capable of providing up to 293 apartments—was included in this carveout.
Despite this estimate for one site, City Planning reported a projected loss of only 76 apartments due to changes in this area. Potential sites are generally considered less likely candidates for development within ten years after rezoning because they may face obstacles such as unusual lot shapes or existing commercial tenants.
The city did not include unit projections from seven potential sites in its initial estimates; therefore it is misleading to claim a loss of all possible apartments at these locations due solely to council modifications. A spokesperson clarified that the loss figure refers specifically to apartments converted from office space on projected sites.
Additionally, another reduction came when maximum allowable residential floor area was lowered from an FAR (floor area ratio) of 18 down to 15 in part of the southeast quadrant—removing an estimated 117 future housing units across four identified lots.
Barbara Blair, president of the Garment District Alliance, believes these official estimates understate lost opportunities: “I believe [the number] is closer to 1,000 units of housing that will not be built across nearly forty properties carved out by City Council,” she told TRD’s Quinn Waller. Blair’s view assumes every affected owner would either redevelop or sell their property for redevelopment under new rules.
It remains uncertain how many properties might have been converted if given full opportunity under original plans; however actual construction over time will show how many out of an expected total near 9,535 apartments eventually materialize in Midtown South over coming years.
Elsewhere in New York State news: Lawmakers are investigating rising property insurance premiums driven by climate risks while insurers report record profits (https://www.timesunion.com/state/article/ny-lawmakers-investigate-property-insurance-market-19481584.php). There are concerns about affordability and access for homeowners facing higher costs.
At New York City’s local level: Some councilmembers are urging Mayor Eric Adams’ administration (https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-vacant-apartment-inspections-law-goes-unenforced-as-rats-leaks-and-other-hazards-fester) to enforce inspections on vacant apartments following complaints about hazards like leaks and pests—a law passed almost two years ago but still lacking an operational complaint system via city agencies.
In real estate transactions this week: The top residential sale recorded was a $12.4 million condominium at Lenox Hill’s new construction building at 201 East 74th Street; Douglas Elliman represented the listing. On the commercial side RXR’s Scott Rechler acquired Manhattan’s landmark office tower at 590 Madison Avenue for $1.1 billion—the priciest NYC office deal since Google parent Alphabet bought 550 Washington Street in March 2022.
New listings include a $15 million penthouse at Chelsea’s 515 West 23rd Street, offered through Sotheby’s International Realty; meanwhile Daniel Bernstein filed plans for an eleven-story building with sixty-nine residences totaling over seventy-two thousand square feet—one of several projects breaking ground this month.
