A new study published in PNAS projects that as many as 10,000 lives could be saved each year in the United States if global efforts keep average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The research uses future climate scenarios to estimate the impact of wildfire smoke pollution on public health and the economy.
Wildfires have become more frequent and intense across North America over the past decade, resulting in increased air pollution from fine particulates and other harmful substances. Despite these dangers, the effects of wildfire smoke are often not included in broader assessments of climate change costs.
The scientific team, led by Minghao Qiu, assistant professor at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, developed a new framework to quantify air pollution from wildfire smoke and its related mortality under different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The model also accounts for how previous fires influence future burn probability—a factor often overlooked in projections.
Using data from 28 global climate models, researchers created over 700 potential future scenarios. “Under the 3 degrees C mark of current global warning projections, we estimate an annual smoke-related mortality in the U.S. of 64,000 deaths, which increases the estimated deaths related to wildfire smoke that occurred during 2011-2020 by 60 percent,” said Professor Qiu. “This is a very dangerous trend, but lives can be saved if we are able to mitigate climate change by limiting our greenhouse gas emissions through various energy, transportation and climate policies.”
Qiu explained that their findings indicate limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius would reduce annual smoke-related deaths by about 9,000 compared with a scenario where temperatures reach three degrees Celsius. Keeping warming at 1.5 degrees could prevent roughly 11,600 deaths per year.
The economic toll is also significant. The researchers write: “climate-induced wildfire smoke is estimated to generate health damages on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars annually when monetized using the values of mortality risk.” For every additional ton of carbon dioxide emitted in 2025, they calculated a net present value damage cost of $11.2 per ton due to increased mortality from wildfire smoke.
“By incorporating wildfire smoke damages into existing non-wildfire damage estimates increases the U.S. domestic cost of carbon by 74 percent, and thus sustainability increases the expected benefit of greenhouse gas mitigation in the U.S.,” added Qiu.
The study examined whether areas previously burned would be less likely to experience wildfires again soon (negative fire-feedback). While this effect exists, it was not strong enough to offset overall projected increases in wildfires or their societal impacts.
To address these risks more effectively through policy changes, the authors state: “Given the magnitude of estimated damages, our results suggest a need to incorporate this [wildfire] channel into the climate impacts assessment tools used in policy evaluation. The sheer magnitude of smoke damage also suggests wildfire should be placed at a central location for U.S. climate policy.”
