A new study led by Stony Brook University faculty and published in Nature suggests that smoke exposure from wildfires could cause tens of thousands of additional deaths in the United States by 2050. The research team, headed by Minghao Qiu of Stony Brook’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS) and Program in Public Health, analyzed wildfire activity within the context of a warming and drying climate.
The study used historical wildfire data, records on smoke pollution, statistical models, and machine learning tools to estimate deaths linked to exposure to smoke particulates under various climate change scenarios. According to the researchers, warmer and drier conditions have increased both the frequency and intensity of wildfires across the country.
Wildfire smoke contains a complex mix of chemicals that can affect large populations for extended periods. Exposure may contribute to deaths up to three years after initial contact with the pollutants. Fine particulate matter known as PM2.5 is especially concerning because it can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream. While health risks associated with PM2.5 from other sources are well documented, less is understood about its dangers when originating from wildfire smoke.
Recent studies indicate that wildfire smoke includes a variety of toxic chemicals harmful to human health. The research team connected U.S. death records with estimates of population-level exposure to assess added risks posed by this pollution.
“The link between wildfire exposure and mortality burden can be very high, and what we are seeing is a clear increase in wildfire smoke nationwide, including long-range transport of smoke and dangerous particulates across the nation,” said Qiu.
Marshall Burke, senior author of the study and professor at Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, commented: “There’s a broad understanding that wildfire activity and wildfire smoke exposure are changing quickly. This is a lived experience, unfortunately, for folks on the West Coast over the last decade and folks on the East Coast in the last few years. Our paper puts some numbers on what that change in exposure means for health outcomes, both now and in the future as the climate warms. And our understanding of who is vulnerable to this exposure is much broader than we thought.”
The authors also noted that their focus was limited to mortality impacts from PM2.5 exposure due to wildfires; other effects such as non-fatal illnesses or mental health issues were not included in their estimates.
They concluded there is an urgent need for strategies aimed at adapting to increasing levels of wildfire smoke if mortality damages are to be reduced or avoided. These could include improved land management practices like prescribed burns as well as efforts focused on protecting vulnerable groups during periods when air quality deteriorates due to fire events.
The study received support from several organizations including Stony Brook University’s SoMAS and Program in Public Health, Stanford’s Center for Innovation in Global Health, Harvard University Center for the Environment, Keck Foundation, and Stanford Research Computing Center.
